Hells bells and all that . I made the wrong call with NPSFW. Southland farmers up in arms over winter crop restrictions and pugging rules. Minister Parker has made some concessions with regard to troughs and gate ways, but bye the bye is holding the United Nations planned course. Replace “Sustainable” with “Control ” and there you have it. I have said any number of times that The UN wants all land with a slope of 10% or grter in pines. Or to refine that statement further, all class 6-8 in forestry for carbon. 1200 stems per hec. It was 1000. Getting greedy. But remember that a lot of class 6 land can be a flat paddock with a few rocks in it. Class 4-5 in my view will be production forestry. The environmental degradation is not only going to be the horrific storm damage to all forms of infrastructure but also to water quality and our aquatic bio-diversity. These massive plantings of pine will acidify our streams and lakes. The wind blown and erosion of pine forestry caused by large storms will cause huge economic and environmental pain to large sections of our population. This has already been seen with regard to the East coast of the north Is, the Tasman area of the South Is and of course the forest fires of Canterbury. This will only get worse. Remember 2 that you can only claim carbon once. Then you only claim for 17 yrs, or will that move out 10 or more yrs as a consequence of last yrs forest fires and storm slippage. Remember there was wide spread protests to Govt ministers over bad forestry practices and land that is not suitable. Govts response was remove the penalty for carbon lost to the elements. Nothing for those adversely effected.
How will our population be fed. Forget Meat. It will be Nuts, Berry’s, Veggies and Fruit. Remember that all these are seasonal. Will class 1-3 land or slope under 10% be able to provide for NZ,s growing population including housing? The answer to that could be in a TV3 AM show some recent time ago, when a demographic expert called for population control here in God zone.
Minister Parker has given the Horowhenua Veggie growers 10 yrs grace before he imposes the NPS on them. They claim to grow 40% of the nations veggies. The National Party has reacted as you would expect in the lead up to a election. GONE by LUNCH Time if we are elected. Yea right. Remember my post way back 3 yrs ago just after Jacinda crushed the Nats. Finlayson said clearly . Nothing will change with regard to the Treaty Settlement process. THERE is cross party consensus. Land Use Change. For this is to be the full and final settlement. The UN wants wronged indigenous peoples grievances righted. My view is. Most Maori do not want a bar of it. But there are 2 tables. those on the right and those on the left. But all want to settle the grievance process and move forward. When they started they thought they were going to get each Hapu,s original land area returned to them. Most were shocked to find it all goes into the Iwi melting pot, with the exception of Land Corp property’s and other Govt land ,will be in trees and indigenous bio-d of one description or another. Just how it was when they sold it 100- 140 yrs ago.
AS a nation we are in trouble. Where will the export income come from to provide for the wants and needs that our consumers have become used to. I realise a significant number of lower soci-economic peoples can answer that question. But will the balance of the population adjust to the “Sustainable” way of life?
Will it be based on carbon.
Last week we were in Taumarunui and picked up a copy of the local paper. In the back pages, Beef and Lamb, in conjunction with the Feds, were advertising a meeting for farmers. The subject. Carbon farming for profit. Many of my readers will have read the post where i describe the paper i prepared for a speech to local Iwi reps. You will remember that I concluded that 60% of the example property was ear marked for trees. Just wait for the farming industry to get older and start looking for the easy life. If they can see the $ on offer and they can afford to wait the 5 yrs pine is claimable then look out for it will be a gold rush. Cannot blame them. You do the math’s. 1200 stems to the hec. No penalty’s for storm or fire damage. $34-100/tonne. Lets say for the purpose of this post, the DM content is 30%. and at yr 25 the tree is 2 ton in weight, x 30% =700 kg carbon x 1200 @ $50 per ton = $ 42,000 per hec. So long as the tree is there of course. Just have to be able to hang in there initially.
I wish it was so easy. Will the laws of supply and demand prevail. Too much carbon flooding the market. I hear that over in the Wiararapa the carbon company’s buying are offering the property’s back to seller to lease ,as there are no longer any emissions to off set due to Covid.
Then there is the natural degradation of the tree’d cover. There is no way 1200 stems of pine will have prevailed, at 60 years of age, on slope grter than 20% That will almost certainly cause much economic pain to the carbon farmer. All those penalty’s accruing. The indigenous bio-d will be well established as the under story, but is not claimable by anybody other than Maori. And then only as a permanent forest sink. My guess is that the Govt of the day will step in and wipe the penalty’s but take the land in exchange and put it into the DoC estate. This will then be come the full and final settlement.
I also recognise that this govt has put a floor under the carbon price of $20/t. Will the Govt of the day sustain that price or will it, due to unfore seen circumstance’s drop it. For as you will understand from this blog. Environmental concerns of the Nation are not about the Climate and water quality. But Treaty Settlements.
I have been very descriptive in this post ,probably more descriptive than in any other. But it is for real. And as National’s Justice Minister, Simon Power said . Yes you are right. Then announced he was retiring from politics at the up and coming election following week.
I no who I am voting for next election and it is not any of the major party’s. May be a protest vote, but I believe people are waking up. I hear from the news media that NZers are hoarding cash at a grter rate than any other time in history. I do not no where they are getting it from but I wish them all the best, for next they will start protesting.
Bring it on.